There are many unusual indicators of recession, from sales of sausages to men’s underwear. One of these oddities is the Hemline Index Theory, which suggests that when the economy is in a recession, the hemlines of women’s skirts become longer. It was first proposed by economist George Taylor in 1926. He attributed the cause to women’s greater confidence during economic booms and their ability to afford luxury goods, such as silk stockings typically worn with shorter hemlines.
For instance, in America during the Roaring Twenties– a period of economic prosperity, the trend of shorter hemlines flourished amongst the flappers. Their skirts ended above the knee, which was considered quite scandalous at the time. Then, in 1929, following the crash of the stock market and during the Great Depression, women opted for longer, more conservative dresses. In contrast, during the 1960s, the miniskirt became a trend due to the stronger, postwar economy, and this trend of shorter skirts would return in the 1980s following a free market boom during the Reagan Era.
Data analysis has proved that there is indeed a link between hemline lengths and economic prosperity. A study by Insook Ahn in the 2015 Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles analyzed the relationship between dress hemlines and the economy. The study used hemlines from US Vogue spring and fall editions from 1950 to 2014, which was then compared with macro-economic factors, such as real GDP, recession, and unemployment. The study found that recessions and unemployment correlated with increased hemline lengths, supporting the Hemline Index Theory.
In 2010, Marjolein van Baardwijk and Philip Hans Fransesfrom the Erasmus School of Economics compared data from fashion magazines with measures of GDP from 1921 to 2009. Likewise, their study concluded that hemline lengths correlated with economic performance. However, they found that skirt lengths were not good predictors for economic recession. Instead, it was the other way around, as trends in hemlines tended to lag three years behind the market.
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Though a poor predictor, fashion is undoubtedly tied to the economy, and the current economic state can explain some popular trends. For instance, PrettyLittleThing is a U.K. based retailer previously known for their affordable, going-out pieces. The brand was bold and colorful, once being represented by flying pink unicorns, complete with fluffy white wings. Their products used to be just as striking, often featuring plunging necklines, risque cut-outs, and form-fitting dresses.
However, in March 2025, the clothing brand underwent a drastic change, trading in their showy, modern designs for a more modest, conservative image. A quick glance at the brand’s site reveals a new logo with classy, cursive text, an interface with simple black-and-white colouring, and an aesthetic best described as “quiet luxury” with several models featured in floor-length gowns, flowing maxi skirts, and loose-fitting blouses. Gone too are the bright colours, now replaced with varying shades of dusty beige, light baby blue, and pale white, as well as the daring cut-outs and once vibrant designs; besides a black-and-white zebra print, the majority of their new arrivals feature only a single shade.
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PrettyLittleThing is far from the only fashion label to rebrand itself with a modest, “quiet luxury” image. The fashion industry in general has taken a formal turn in recent years, as evidenced by the “office siren” trend—alternatively known as “corpcore” or “corporate fetish”—which features office wear but with a chic, idealized twist. Think skintight button-downs, often with the topmost buttons undone, figure-hugging pencil skirts, and shiny, black heels, all topped off with a pair of Bayonetta glasses. Gisele Bündchen’s character in The Devil Wears Prada is a prime example.
These trends show a rise in the romanticization of the professional workspace, mostly likely in response to the down-turning economy. As the economy worsens and more people become unemployed or financially unstable, they may begin to hope for a job and idealize employment in general. Both the “office siren” trend and the Hemline Index Theory highlight how the economy is inextricably twisted with all other aspects of life, including fashion. So although following skirt lengths won’t help you predict the next recession, the Hemline Index Theory helps us to understand how everything, even something innocuous such as skirt lengths, is affected by the economy under our current capitalist society.
